Trading patterns are expected to change in the near-term with an increase in exports from Australia, Mongoliam Western Canada and Russia to China and from South Africa and Australia to India. Demand and thus exports to Europe from all regions is expected to decline, and the South American market is expected to rely more on imports from Eastern parts of the US than the Asia Pacific region. All resulting in lower transportation costs for coal shipments, as long-distance transportation of coal will be minimized. For example, very little coal will be send from Australia to the EU.
Larger growth in seaborne exports of steam coal is expected than metallurgic coal is expected, due to rising growth in demand in India and China. A cagr of 5.3% for seaborne steam coal is expected between 1990 and 2025, and a cagr of 3.2% for metallurgic coal.
Over the next five years, most growth in thermal coal demand is expected from the Indian market (125% – 175%) rather than the Chinese market (5% to 25%). Other demand from pacific countries is expected to grow by approximately 20% and 25% in the Atlantic region. However, a 50 to 75 Mt shortfall in meeting demand is expected by 2015, even with a growth in exports from Australia of 30% to 60% and Indonesia of 15% to 25%, unless other producers can rapidly ramp up capacity in time. Such as an increase in production output from new and existing mines in the Atlantic region, Mongolia, Russia and other countries. Big suppliers of metallurgic coal are likely to continue to be the Australia, Canada, Russia and the US.
